This article examines the rising threat of chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear (CBRN) events and the high cost of failing to prepare. Once considered rare scenarios, outbreaks such as the 2014 Ebola virus in West Africa and the global COVID-19 pandemic have revealed how quickly these events can overwhelm health systems, disrupt economies, and destabilize societies. Beyond the immediate human suffering and lives lost, CBRN incidents drive widespread fear, workforce shortages, and reduced productivity, while undermining trade and financial stability.
The paper highlights evidence showing that investing in preparedness pays dividends. Preventive measures—such as resilient healthcare infrastructure, stockpiles of essential resources, workforce training, and strong international cooperation—cost far less than the reactive spending required during full-blown crises. For example, while Ebola caused economic losses equivalent to more than 12% of GDP in affected countries, the ongoing costs of COVID-19 have been exponentially higher on a global scale.
In this piece, the authors argue that the choice for governments is clear: pay now through strategic investments in resilience, or face far greater losses later. Lessons from recent outbreaks underscore the need for cross-border collaboration, sustainable funding, and proactive systems for detection, containment, and mitigation. By treating CBRN threats as inevitable rather than hypothetical, nations can strengthen long-term security, protect their populations, and safeguard economic stability.
Johnson, M. L. (2020, August). Pay Now or Pay More. CBRNe World, 46.
